Just a quick reminder that Kentucky is often seen by elections experts as a bellwether for upcoming presidential elections.
This has been the case since 2003. That is, we have seen that the outcome of presidential elections have followed the outcome of the KY gubernatorial race to a tee!
Also worth noting is that Governor Andy Beshear ran heavily on abortion rights, jobs and infrastructure. Clearly these were winning messages. Joe Biden, of course, has a pretty strong record to run on in these areas, and like with Beshear, he can easily point to the extremism of the GOP as a contrast.
Prior to the results from last night, there was much speculation going on about what a Beshear loss would mean. For example, from Politico, we got this bit of punditry
“The political environment has rapidly nationalized, and next week’s fight in Kentucky will provide key insight into 2024 and could force both parties to reckon with a confusing political moment. Biden’s poll numbers have continued to sink to new lows — but Democrats have generally overperformed in special elections this year.
A wire-to-wire Beshear win would suggest the president and his party are stronger than they look on paper heading into 2024. A come-from-behind Cameron victory would signal that the country is getting even more polarized, and that antipathy toward Biden is a powerful motivating force for Republican-leaning voters who approve of Beshear’s job performance but ultimately stuck with their party when it came time to pick a side.”
I’m thinking we are probably feeling a lot more confident about 2024 today.